And then, on a wave of euphoria from these victories, he began to promote his protégés to key positions in the executive branch. Ordinary people dubbed this policy ikhwanization of the country (Ikhwan Arabic for brothers). After he became president, morsi formally quit the muslim Brotherhood. It was generally believed, however, that the spiritual leader of the muslim Brothers played a serious, and possibly the main, role in policies pursued under Morsi. As a result, there was the impression that a system had taken shape in Egypt that could evolve into a symbiosis, unacceptable to the gulf States, of the sunni (Turkish) and Shia (Iranian) models of Islamic democracy. From the Iranian model it borrowed shadow Islamist leadership orchestrating political events from behind the scenes. Morsi seriously underestimated the military. He did not realize that the army needed Islamists to preserve a kind of immunity to democracy, which safeguarded their corporate political and economic privileges.
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This is why many analysts believed there was the figure of ifrs Bandar bin Sultan, the chief of the saudi intelligence service, behind the power takeover in Qatar. Just a few days later, the saudis stepped out from behind the scenes of regional ypt: a flaw in solving the cube? The assignment military coup in Egypt, which happened on July 3, was one of expected surprises integrated in the algorithm of the Arab Spring. S.-supported experiment in democracy, with reliance on the muslim Brotherhood, looked questionable from the very beginning. However, it took a year to understand that the road to democracy in the middle east would not follow routes offered by Stanford University but would go across pits and bumps of centuries-old traditions, social and religious prejudices, a mixed economy, and a divided society. Of course, during his year in power, mohamed Morsi made many mistakes, for which he bears personal responsibility. The main one was that he did not realize that his task was to find a national consensus and unite forces that could help to solve problems facing the country. Instead, he focused on issues that best met the interests of Islamists. He pushed through a constitution that actually legalized sharia and that caused a sharp conflict with the judiciary and the secular opposition, which decided that the Brothers robbed the people of their revolution. Morsi also adopted a constitutional declaration that essentially broadened his powers and drew accusations that he had usurped power.
His statement drew a positive response in the barbing world. Of regional powers, only saudi Arabia and Israel took the changes in Iran as tactical maneuvering without changing the strategic goal of creating its own nuclear weapons and expansion. The projection of this approach onto the syrian crisis inevitably resulted in that the syrian issue was ever closer linked with to the task of isolating and weakening the ayatollahs regime. June ended with a silent revolution in Qatar. On June 25, Emir Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani handed over power to his son Tamim bin Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani. The underlying reason for this move was more or less clear. Under the former emir, qatar became a major financial and media (the Al jazeera tv channel) sponsor of the muslim Brotherhood regime in Egypt and the Islamic opposition in Syria. This policy came into sharp conflict with the interests of Gulf monarchies, above all saudi Arabia, which viewed political Islam as a serious threat to the survival of semi-feudal regimes in the southern periphery of the Greater Middle east.
The changing regional context of developments in Syria and the Arab Spring in general was further made obvious by mass protests in Turkey in June 2013, which evolved into a bitter conflict between the ruling Justice and development Party (akp ideologically close to the muslim. In particular, people protested against the growing involvement of Prime minister Recep Erdogans government in the syrian crisis on the side of Assads opponents. Turkish nationalists linked this involvement to the akps initiative for reconciliation with Turkeys Kurds, which was highly unpopular among nationalist Turks. The protests in Istanbul showed that something was wrong with the turkish model of reformatting the region democratically. In addition, the turkey-qatar link in the outer circle of regional sponsors of the civil war in Syria turned out to be significantly weakened. This factor seemed to add confidence to the saudis ahead of the change of power in Qatar and Egypt. On June 14, 2013, hassan rouhani, a moderate reformer, was elected President of Iran. Right after that, he expressed readiness to move away from his predecessors policy of head-on confrontation with the west.
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Later, as the military-strategic situation began to change in favor of Damascus, the opposition tightened its position. By july, the coalition demanded (unofficially, of course) the restoration of military parity with the government forces as a condition for its participation in the geneva conference. However, on June 5, the syrian army, reinforced by hezbollah fighters, captured the strategic city of al-Qusayr. This factor was crucial for subsequent events not only because it gave damascus access to Alawite coastal areas, including the ports of Tartus and Latakia through which military supplies were made to the ruling regime. The price of the victory was higher: it marked the beginning of a moral and political turning point in the 30-month-long civil war. There was the impression that the regime, which relied on the support of broad sections of the population, won the hard confrontation with the opposition, whose political part looked helpless in comparison with Muslim extremists, mercenaries and jihadists who fought on its side.
It is final time to recall that Jabhat al-Nusra was designated by the United States as a terrorist organization back in December 2012. After the fall of al-Qusayr, the syrian opposition and its regional sponsors launched a massive anti-Shia campaign, accusing hezbollah and Iran of interfering in Syrian affairs. Saudi Arabia and Gulf states severed relations with hezbollah. Shortly after (following the change of power in Qatar muslim Brothers in Egypt followed suit. The regional media was fed the issue of Syrias possible division into three enclaves Alawite (Shia sunni and Kurdish.
The discussions focused on the delivery of military aid to the opposition, which linked its setbacks to not having modern weapons. Participants in the Amman meeting proposed establishing a buffer zone in Syria, with the center in Aleppo, or a no-fly zone, as it was done in Libya. At about the same time,. Senator John McCain (and later Secretary of State kerry) called for delivering air strikes against the syrian military infrastructure. All these demonstrations were prompted by a desire of regional opponents of the Assad regime, above all saudi Arabia, to force a military solution to the syrian problem before the russian-U. Initiative to convene geneva ii took effect.
In parallel with attempts to revive the Friends of Syria format, saudis focused on the consolidation of the national coalition for Syrian revolutionary and Opposition Forces, where a tactical alliance began to take shape between secular groups and Muslim Brothers patronized by qatar. At a national coalition conference in Istanbul, saudis masterminded the resignation of its president moaz al-Khatib, who was close to muslim Brothers and who was the only person in the coalition leadership to express willingness for dialogue with Assad during preparations for Geneva. Later, in July, they secured the election of their candidate, ahmad Jarba, to this post. However, saudis failed to change the balance of power in the national coalition in their favor: only six people of their 25 preferred candidates were elected to the coalition leadership. As a result, behind-the-scene struggle between saudi Arabia and Qatar for influence on the syrian opposition escalated. Regional sponsors of Syrian rebels divided into two rival groups saudi Arabia, the uae and Jordan, on the one hand, and Qatar and Turkey, on the other. On may 27, lavrov and Kerry discussed in Paris preparations for Geneva. Damascus agreed to participate in the conference, whereas the syrian opposition did not, despite pressure from the. The commander of the Free syrian Army, brigadier General Salim Idris, flatly refused to participate in the conference, while the national coalition said it was ready only to discuss Assads resignation in Geneva.
Syria war: un security council approves
In mid-may, rebels made an attempt to merge their two main groups the pdf Iraq-based and al-qaeda controlled Islamic State of Iraq and the levant, which began to operate in Syria, and local Jabhat al-Nusra. The merger never happened, and the rebels changed their tactics: proponents of establishing an Islamic caliphate in Syria started to create emirates, ruled by sharia (Islamic law in liberated areas near the borders with Turkey and Iraq. In these conditions, on may 3 and 5, just as Kerry and lavrov were preparing in Moscow to announce the convening of Geneva ii, israel carried out air strikes against Syrian military targets in Damascus. Tel aviv said the attacks were intended to prevent chemical weapons from falling into jihadists hands. The issue of uncontrolled proliferation of Syrian chemical weapons also featured in the scenario of a military exercise held by 19 countries in early june in Jordan. Immediately after it, 41 countries participated in a major naval exercise in the persian Gulf, off the coast of Iran. Shortly before, on may 22, the Friends of Syria group met in Amman. The group was set up in February 2012 in Tunisia to coordinate international aid to the syrian opposition (it is indicative that there were only 13 Friends at the Amman conference, whereas the previous meeting in Marrakech was attended by delegates of 144 countries).
sponsors. One of the reasons for it was that, by the time the russian-U. Initiative was announced, no one had any doubt that the u-turn towards a political and diplomatic settlement was due to changes in the military situation in Syria which were unfavorable to Assads opponents. Starting in March and April, government forces slowly but steadily took over the initiative. They captured the city of Idlib which had controlled rebel communications with Lebanon. In areas near the turkish border, previously neutral Kurds began to respond to increasingly frequent provocations from the oppositions jihadist groups, which received reinforcements from saudi Arabia and Qatar via turkey. Tensions also grew in Druze-populated areas along the syrian-Israeli border. Another factor that changed the military-strategic situation in favor of the government forces was a division between the oppositions secular pro-western groups, which relied on the Free syrian Army, and radical Islamist groups.
Sometimes it seemed that just one final move was needed to achieve the guaranteed desired harmony of colors and proportions, but. It is hard to expect a result when several people manipulate the cube simultaneously. Setting the cube in motion, this became particularly evident in the spring of 2013, when the middle eastern Rubiks Cube suddenly twitched and its faces began to rotate with a clicking sound, like a geiger counter reconfigured to detect chemical weapons. The events over Syria developed in breadth and began to overlap. Apparently, two unobviously but closely interlinked factors set the cube in motion these were the russian-U. Initiative to convene a geneva ii middle east peace conference and recent military successes of Syrian government forces against rebels. Lets start with Geneva ii, preparations for which were announced by sergei lavrov and John Kerry on may 7 during the. Secretary of States visit to russia. It was meant that the conference would be held under un auspices on the basis of the final communiqué adopted by the Action Group on Syria at the previous Geneva meeting in June 2012.
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In mid-may 2013, the middle east dialogue of the valdai discussion Club held a conference in Marrakech, the tourist capital of Morocco. In addition to the usual participants errant political scientists the conference was attended by representatives of Islamic parties and groups, among real them Al-nour and al Jamaat al Islamiya of Egypt, hezbollah of Lebanon, hamas of Palestine, the Ennahda movement of Tunisia, and the muslim Brotherhood. The conferences agenda islam in Politics: Ideology or Pragmatism aroused great interest. As it soon became clear, the meeting in Marrakech coincided in time with the completion of the first phase of the Arab Spring, which proved to be a disaster: instead of moving over from authoritarianism to democracy, the region swung towards new forms of authoritarianism. A month and a half before the events in Egypt, these tendencies were only beginning to take shape in Marrakech. But the unconventionality of the algorithm of the regions democratic reformatting became more or less obvious. The secretary general of the national dialogue party of Lebanon, fouad makhzoumi, who took part in the conference, compared it to solving a middle eastern Rubiks Cube. Attempts to solve the middle eastern cube have continued for decades.